Cartels Could Retaliate Against U.S. Attacks By Targeting Mexican Politicians And Armed Forces, Expert Warns

Mexican cartels could retaliate against U.S. attacks against them in the country by targeting local politicians and law enforcement forces, according to an expert.

Vanda Felbab-Brown, director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors, detailed potential scenarios in the Brookings Institute's website as President Donald Trump continues to anticipate "land" attacks against the criminal organizations in the neighboring country.

Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected the notion, but given the possibility that such a scenario could take place, the expert described the different ways in which the aftermath could unfold, noting that the scope of retaliation could vary in scale and intensity.

The most likely form, she said, is already available: intensify attacks against local politicians, government officials and law enforcement. "Mexican cartels routinely kidnap, torture, and kill Mexican government officials and security agents and their families (as well as journalists and civil society activists)," Felbab-Brown recalled.

She added that the groups could stage blockades on roads, highways and major crossings into the U.S. to impact the movement of people and economic activity. "They have already resorted to such actions and could expand and maintain them for longer periods, jeopardizing U.S. supply chains and inflicting high costs on U.S. and Mexican companies," she explained.

The expert went on to say that the moves could "escalate into attacks and sabotage against important infrastructure and the factories and other facilities of U.S. businesses in Mexico." "Beyond temporarily paralyzing operations, such attacks would increase the already high costs international companies in Mexico face for security, including hiring private security companies to protect employees," Felbab-Brown noted.

Cartels have previously mounted city-wide sieges involving gun battles, bombings, and the burning of businesses to force government concessions. Such operations could become more frequent and spread to additional cities if cartels perceive their survival to be at stake, the expert noted in another passage of the article.

Moreover, while Mexican cartels have generally avoided targeting U.S. citizens, sustained U.S. military involvement could alter this calculus. Attacks on U.S. personnel in Mexico, or on American civilians living in or visiting the country, would be a large escalation but can't be fully ruled out.

While Sheinbaum rules out U.S. involvement on the ground, others in Mexico are calling for it. Opposition leader Alejandro Moreno Cardenas is one of them. Speaking to local journalist Ciro Gomez this week, Moreno Cardenas, who leads the PRI, one of the main parties in Mexico, said "we need to destroy cartels because they are destroying our country, hence de collaboration."

"Who has the technology? Who has the equipment? Who has the capacity? The U.S. government," he added.

In this context, a recent report noted that the Trump administration is pushing for its forces to accompany Mexican counterparts in raids on suspected fentanyl labs.

The New York Times detailed that the administration first made such a request since early last year but then dropped it. However, the topic has been brought back to the conversation following the capture of Venezuela's authoritarian leader Nicolas Maduro on January 3.

Mexican officials, the outlet added, are under pressure to reach an agreement, and some in the U.S. want to conduct drone strikes against suspected drug labs. However, fentanyl labs are difficult to find and destroy, and forces are still developing ways to do so.

Right now, the CIA is carrying secret drone flights over Mexico to identify possible locations. The intelligence is then given to Mexican forces, many of whom have been trained by U.S. counterparts to execute and conduct raids.

However, now Washington has proposed for forces to join the raids and provide support even if Mexican forces continue taking the lead and making key decisions.

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